What do we mean by foresight?
Skills Foresight has been defined as a 'systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'1. In simple terms, it is a tool which supports the design and implementation of policies with a medium- to long-term perspective.
By helping to anticipate and understand future developments in a policy area or sector, or in the system as a whole, foresight supports the exploration and development of more future-proofed, robust policies. Through engaging in foresight, policy actors and relevant stakeholders can explore the future and use the insights gained to decide on the direction of current policies. The key attributes of foresight can be expanded as follows:
Systematic: involving a well-designed approach based on a number of phases and using appropriate tools;
Participatory: since it brings together a wide range of stakeholders and encourages interactions, networking and learning;
Future intelligence gathering: studying trends and drivers, their interactions and possible disruptions, thereby allowing more evidence-based policy approaches and a level of anticipation;
Vision-building process: the exploration of alternative scenarios facilitates an eventual focus on a common vision and consensus-building;
Mobilising joint actions: by engaging stakeholders, foresight supports the pathway to effective policy implementation through joined-up approaches.
Foresight activity chain
Source: 'Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts – guide to anticipating and matching skills and jobs Vol. 2'.
Is foresight different from forecasting?
Foresight looks at the future based on observations of the past and tries to make sense of it; in addition, it utilises the qualitative assessment of possible developments carried out by different combinations of actors (i.e. in the context of where a country wants to go).
Forecasting is typically a quantitative tool that, based on economic projections, aims to produce a comprehensive picture of future labour market developments in terms of economic sectors, occupations, qualifications and skills (i.e. predicting the economic and labour market evolutions in a country). You can check the module on Forecast.
In general, and compared to forecasting methodologies, foresight exercises tend to be mostly qualitative. In particular, qualitative methods are often employed where the key trends or developments are hard to capture using simplified indicators, or where such data are not available. These methods are often used to give meaning to developments and observations, but such interpretations tend to be based on particular views, beliefs and knowledge and leave a lot of room for subjective reflection.
The current trend in the foresight process is to apply a mixture of different approaches, as it is broadly accepted that foresight activities cannot be completely dominated by purely qualitative or quantitative methods and their results.
Steps for foresight implementation
There are many different foresight tools, but they cannot be implemented randomly. Thus, foresight is a structured and systematic approach that needs to follow some key steps for successful implementation.
- Clarifying the purpose of the foresight exercise and determining whether it can provide the kind of information sought and fulfil expectations;
- Defining the key programme design elements, including objectives, expected outcomes, the foresight time horizon, partners, stakeholders, participants, scope, the methods and formats to be applied, and the time and resources to be allocated to the exercise. Gaining the broadest possible support early on is important, but, again, it is vital to manage expectations.
- Clarifying the key questions and how to find the answers: selecting an appropriate methodology should be done early in the foresight design process. The chosen methodology should be problem-solving driven and result-oriented. It should also take into account the feasibility of implementation and the relevant operational resource needs/constraints. These considerations should help in selecting a set of methods to be applied at different stages of the process in the appropriate sequence.
- Managing the foresight exercise: the foresight implementation plan has to include a number of organisational issues, such as building the implementation team and assigning roles and responsibilities to its members. The proper implementation of the foresight exercise incudes the collection, collation and a summary of available information, followed by the translation and interpretation of this information to produce an understanding of its implications for the future.
- Ensuring the use of results: the life of the foresight process does not stop at the end of the implementation of the activity itself; it includes tasks related to the use and dissemination of the results, as well as their evaluation, and reflection on the lessons for future foresights.