Methods and examples
No single foresight model or method is applied across a wide range of countries. Rather, in each context a different tool or set of tools may be used to set priorities and decide how to implement them more effectively.
Foresight can take different forms depending on the nature, scale and ambition of the exercise, the sectoral focus, the resources available, the time frame, and the level of maturity of the context. Choosing the foresight method is crucial for the process and results. One of the most frequently used foresight methods is backcasting, which defines a desirable future and then works backwards to identify the major events and decisions that would generate it.
Roadmapping is another commonly used tool, which looks at the future for a chosen field and seeks the most important drivers of change in that sphere. It provides inputs for the formulation of policies and strategies.
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Example: Skills foresight in the EU Enlargement region: In 2013, the European Commission entrusted the European Training Foundation with supporting enlargement countries in creating a commonly agreed vision and a road map for the Skills Vision 2020 within a wider human resource development (HRD) context (the 'Frame' project). Skills were at the centre of the foresight initiative, which sought to answer the question 'Which skills should the country develop towards 2020 and how can these skills be generated by the education and training system?'. Participation in the various processes ensured that the main government institutions with a stake in the HRD sector, economic actors and civil society were all represented. The exercise also aimed at informing the programming process for the EU IPA funds 2014–2020, contributing to best use of funds. Full details are available at: https://www.etf.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/frame-regional-report-supporting-strategic-vision-human |
Exploratory methods start in the present and, based on preconditions, look into different futures. One example is the Delphi method – an exploratory technique that aims to structure group thinking and communication to reflect on complex issues. It is particularly used by experts in a series of iterative learning rounds of expert panels – platforms of experts that generate and debate ideas on the future, gathering and validating information, and formulating priorities and actions.
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Example: Germany: In the foresight process led by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), a sequence of expert panels is used to identify new future research and technology fields. This helps to specify and refine topics of interest and innovation. The cooperation with experts is based on face-to-face workshops, alternating with online surveys, which lead to the step-by-step reclustering of topics. The BMBF process provides technology foresight with a time horizon of approximately 10 to 15 years. It is characterised by combining two approaches in a cyclic process model: one cycle strongly influenced by the technology push approach is followed by another that is mainly demand-pull orientated. More information is available at: https://www.bmbf.de/en/bmbf-foresight-1419.html |
Horizon scanning is a structured evidence-gathering process based on desk research and expert opinions, and which includes a systematic examination of opportunities and likely future developments that are at the margins of current thinking and planning.
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Example: United Kingdom: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills carried out the National Strategic Skills Audit for England with the aim of providing valuable insights into the country’s strategic skills needs. Within this project, a ‘horizon scanning and scenario’ foresight exercise was commissioned to assess the future drivers, challenges and opportunities for skills in the UK. The St Andrews Management Institute carried out the exercise and produced a report that was one of the key information sources for the National Strategic Skills Audit. Horizon scanning was one of the core methods used, divided into two stages: general scanning and prioritisation. More on the national skills audit can be found at: http://www.ukces.org.uk/ourwork/nssa |
Scenarios are a policy analysis tool used to describe a possible set of future conditions. They help decision-makers to consider potential options and choose the preferred vision for future policy outcomes.
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Example: Australia: In 2012 the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency, in its 'Future Focus: 2013 National Workforce Development Strategy', produced four possible and plausible scenarios, up to the year 2025, to deal with the uncertainty and limitations of making projections about the future. Scenarios were used to outline alternative visions of the future and provide a means to make decisions that take account of uncertainty. The intention was that, by comparing these alternative scenarios, the significance of different uncertainties could be better appreciated. A comparison of the model results based on these scenarios helped to identify how much difference various alternative future developments were likely to make to the demands for different skills, as well as exploring why, and what responses might then be most appropriate. More information on the National Workforce Development Strategy is available at: https://apo.org.au/node/33107 |
Supplementary methods are widely used in supporting the goals of foresight exercises (e.g. conducting a literature and statistics review, SWOT analysis, brainstorming, focus groups).
Literature and statistics review: Not a foresight method as such, but an essential background activity or first step in any foresight exercise. It involves observation, examination, monitoring and a systematic description of the technological, sociocultural, political, ecological and economic contexts.
SWOT analysis: An analytical tool which helps to identify the main internal strengths and weaknesses as well as the external opportunities and threats that may shape the reality of any situation.
Brainstorming: Encourages group thinking and supports the generation of ideas. It may also help to increase the group’s ownership of the results, prevent conflict and achieve consensus.
Focus groups: A form of qualitative research in which a group of people are asked about their perceptions, opinions, beliefs and attitudes with respect to issues of interest.
Concluding remarks
All tools have pros and cons; the best approach is to combine them according to the specific purpose of the exercise.