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Skills anticipation and matching

Example of Cedefop’s (the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training) forecast

This pan-European forecasting method uses the macroeconomic model (E3ME) developed by Cambridge Econometrics and the employment projections of the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER). It provides comprehensive information on future labour market trends in Europe, including projections on the labour force, employment trends and job opportunities. See example at: http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/events-and-projects/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply/data-visualisations or http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/3077  

Example of the United Kingdom forecast

Employment forecasts are carried out by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER) at Warwick University, based on the macroeconomic forecasts of Cambridge Econometrics (CE). These forecasts are commissioned by the Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA) or UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES). IER was the first research group in Europe to produce regular employment forecasts. See: http://www.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier, http://www.ssda.org.uk. Example: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/514285/Working_Futures_Headline_Report_final_for_web__PG.pdf

Example of data use in the Czech Republic

Occupational forecasting models from the Netherlands (ROA) and Ireland (ESRI) have been adapted to the needs of the Czech Republic. In 2001, for example, limited time series from the Labour Force Surveys (LFS) for the period 1993–1999 were used by the National Observatory of Employment and Training to provide forecasts of expansion demand, replacement demand and job openings in 50 occupation groups and 59 educational categories for the period 2000–2004. See: http://www.nvf.cz/observatory/gb/info_gb.htm  

Example of Ukraine: Pilot Quantitative Skills Forecast 2015–2020

  1. Macro-module: Future skills demand will depend on the types of jobs that the economy creates, which in turn will depend on macro-economic developments in the domestic and global economies. Therefore, a forecast starts with macro-economic projections that will provide an indication of the future employment levels across economic/industrial sectors.
  2. Expansion demand module: Employment levels in particular occupations can change: either because the sectors in which they are concentrated grow or decline, or because of changes in occupational composition within sectors.
  3. Replacement demand module: In addition to any projected increase (or decrease) in occupational employment levels, there is also a need to replace those leaving an occupation because of retirement or other reasons (replacement demand).
  4. Supply module (labour force): Labour supply is calculated based on demographic trends and projections (see the population census), plus changing patterns of qualifications (see education/training data) in the country.
  5. Imbalance module: Estimations of demand and supply mismatch.
Visual graph for the structure and linkages by module in the Ukrainian example:

Image removed.

 

France: Employment forecasts are currently carried out at the national, sectoral and local levels, with different bodies responsible for the forecasting activity in each case. At the national level, the forecasts are carried out by the Institute of Economic Forecasting (BIPE), while at the local level the Regional Employment and Training Observatories (OREF) becomes involved. In addition, the Statistical and Economic Research Department of the French Ministry of Employment produces quantitative employment projections. See: https://lebipe.com/

Germany: There are three main research institutions involved in forecasting in Germany: the Institute for Labour Market and Vocational Research (IAB); the Federal Institute of Employment; and the Federal Institute for Vocational Training (BiBB). IAB’s comprehensive employment forecasts are based on an open econometric model that includes a modified trend extrapolation of some aspects of employment structures supported by qualitative expert ratings and quantitative scenario techniques. See: https://www.iab.de/961/section.aspx/Bereichnummer/7

Ireland: The Irish occupational forecasting model has been developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) at the request of the Training and Employment Authority (FAS). See: http://www.esri.ie

The Netherlands: The Dutch forecasting model has been developed by the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) within Maastricht University. See: http://www.fdewb.unimaas.nl/roa

Other Examples

Australia: Employment projections have been carried out for many years by the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University (CoPS), using the MONASH general equilibrium model approach. See: http://www.monash.edu

Japan: Various organisations make labour market projections in Japan, but the most representative are those produced by the Ministry of Labour (MoL). These projections are based around forecasts from a multi-sectoral macro model, including both supply and demand blocks. More detailed forecasts are carried out by the Japan Institute of Labour (JIL). See: http://www.jil.go.jp

Canada: Employment projections in Canada are carried out by the Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) using the Canadian Occupational Projection Systems (COPS). For more information, see: http://www.hrdc-drhc.gc.ca

USA: The organisation responsible for labour market projections in the USA is the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), which has been examining future job prospects for over fifty years. Projections are based on macro-economic growth, population censuses and labour force surveys, as well as occupational employment surveys. Efforts have been made to measure generic skills in recent years, including the development of the O*NET system. See: http://stats.bls.gov/ or https://www.onetcenter.org/  or http://www.laworkforce.net/ofc/index.htm

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