Sweden – forecasting approach
Since the 1960s, Sweden has developed and implemented a labour market forecasting methodology. The Swedish public employment service (Arbetsförmedlingen) carries this out on a continual basis. The Swedish PES has three tiers: the National Labour Market Board; the county labour boards; and 400 employment offices across the country.
Increasing knowledge of future trends in skills supply and demand is crucial for the PES as it provides a sound basis for the strategic planning and programming of labour market measures at national, regional and local levels and for strengthening contacts with employers and prioritising specific training programmes in line with demand. The approach developed aims at consistent forecasting across the whole country and over time. The methodology combines a national forecast of macro-economic trends, a description of employment and labour at regional (provincial, county) level and information gathered from employers at the local level.
The forecasting of labour demand is based on systematic and regular interviews with employers. Results from questionnaires or interview surveys are assessed and checked, taking national and global economic trends into account. The aim of the employer surveys is to gain an overview of demand for labour in the local, regional and national labour markets in order to develop a picture of future employment trends. It also aims to provide a solid overview of forthcoming recruitment – information mainly used by local employment offices – as the recruitment needs of the local labour market should give a good indication of those sectors planning recruitment drives, in-demand occupations, and the skills required. It is also important to have an overview of any recruitment problems and the effect these may have on local and national labour markets. Labour supply forecasting is also carried out, under the remit of the county labour boards and the National Labour Market Board. It is dependent on a solid population forecast, enrolment and completion of education and estimates of labour market leavers (retirement, inactivation).
Implementation arrangements to gather information from employers include:
- Sampling of employers: the Swedish approach is based on the sampling of workplaces, in combination with a regional level forecast and the definition of the main industrial sectors to be included. Workplaces with more than four employees are surveyed (clustered as follows: 5–19 employees, 20–49, 50–99, 100–199, 200–499 and 500+). A restricted sample of workplaces is surveyed within the 5–99 staff bracket, but coverage of all of those with 100+ staff is planned (some difficulties are encountered in the denser city regions). The company register provides key information for this process.
- The use of a stratified random sample approach: this method incorporates groupings based on sector and region to ensure a comparable approach across the country and the most reliable results. The larger the number of sectors and regions, the larger the sample size required; a sample of 14 000 workplaces is used in Sweden (a country of approximately 9.5 million inhabitants) with a non-reply rate of about 15%. Each local labour office must contact and interview a minimum of 25 workplaces. Local labour offices are free to add any extra workplaces that they consider important, while not removing any of the initially requested workplaces from their local sample.
- Postal questionnaires or face-to-face interviews: researchers must decide whether to collect data via questionnaires or interviews. One advantage of questionnaires is that they require fewer human resources than interview forms, but the knowledge produced in forecasting remains restricted to a limited circle inside the organisation and the quality of outcome is usually poorer than that produced by the interview format. A further big advantage of the interview process is the opportunity to establish or strengthen contacts between local employment offices and employers. Interviews should ideally be held face-to-face on the company site, or by telephone. Personal visits are recommended. It is crucial for the questionnaires to be well tested, but also for questions to remain consistent over time so that historical series may be created as soon as possible. Ideally, all questions should be exactly the same across the country, but extra questions tailored to a specific region may be included.
It is important to ensure that information flows back to the companies and that they feel they gain something for their contribution. It is also vital for the workplaces interviewed to receive good quality feedback on the outcomes of taking part, as this will increase their willingness to participate in future forecasting work and their interest in the process. Confidentiality is essential for forecasting work to be successful.
Source: http://www.arbetsformedlingen.se/
Denmark: Labour Market Balance
Labour Market Balance is an initiative that has been developed by the Danish national labour market authority to assist municipal job centres (PES) plan the delivery of employment and training measures and the provision of counselling to jobseekers. Employment policies’ implementation in Denmark is decentralised: four regional employment offices are charged with analysing and communicating trends in the regional labour markets, while municipal PES/job centres provide employment services. Findings from Labour Market Balance are also shared with other stakeholders at regional level.
The purpose of Labour Market Balance is to support the day-to-day operation of municipal job centres and inform the work of the regional PES and other labour market actors. It has a twofold aim: to provide information on the regional job situation for guidance counsellors in PES; and to provide the regional PES and their governing bodies with an overview of the current employment situation that can inform the monitoring of employment policies and measures.
Labour Market Balance consists of three components: (1) a national employer survey; (2) a labour market model, drawing together data from the survey, PES data on the registered unemployed and registered vacancies, and national statistical data about employment and turnover in the labour market; and (3) an online interface that allows the user to easily identify those occupations with labour shortages or a sufficient supply of labour.
The national employer survey is conducted twice a year among a representative sample of active private and public Danish companies. The survey is contracted out to a private company by the Danish Labour Market Authority. It analyses the country's recruitment situation and labour shortages, with a particular focus on where companies fail to recruit employees in specific occupations. The survey is conducted for 1 100 job categories among approximately 20 000 selected companies, resulting in around 14 000 valid responses with reports of labour shortages.
The data from the survey are used as input for the regional balance model, which analyses the situation in occupations by comparing the demand described in the survey with supply. Regional PES data on unemployment by qualification serve as a proxy source for current supply. As qualifications and occupations do not always match up exactly, demand data are subjected to a transversal analysis whereby data for related occupations are assigned to the occupation with the largest volume of jobs. For example, a shortage of building electricians will be reflected as good job opportunities for electricians regardless of whether there is a shortage of electricians with a general qualification.
Source: http://brnordjylland.dk
Korea: Job World
The Korean Ministry of Employment and Labour, the Korean Employment and Information Service (KEIS), the Human Resources Development Service of Korea and the Employment of Persons with Disabilities Corporation have established partnerships with sponsors from a wide range of private sector interests to develop Korea Job World. Korea Job World Open has been open to the public since May 2012 in a facility conveniently located near public transport and major roads in Seoul.
The prevention of mismatch between candidates' qualifications and skills in demand within the labour market can begin long before a young person is ready to enter the labour market. Designed for school children of all ages, the facility provides opportunities for students to understand the meaning and value of work. Students can access accurate and timely labour market data and occupation information through career guidance practitioners who ensure that young people have the best information available to them as they plan their careers. The centre describes itself as ‘a place where precious dreams are grown ... and the future that you have imagined comes true’.
The facility allows students to explore the realities of over 100 occupations, ranging from the commonplace to more advanced careers, and receive assistance from professional guidance counsellors in planning realistic careers matched to their interests and aptitudes. To ensure the best possible career exploration experience for each student, services can be accessed by appointment only, mostly as part of school-organised field visits, although parents may also arrange to make individual visits with their children.
Korea Job World provides an interesting, informative, entertaining and fun venue where young people of all ages have the opportunity to learn about the world of work and interactively explore a wide range of career and job options. The hall contains specific zones and display areas (adapted to all ages), including a cinema area where students can view realistic and dynamic 4D movies, providing insights into a wide range of jobs and career paths. These short interactive films allow the students to meet people who have overcome hardships and barriers to achieve their career dreams. They can also take a guided journey through time to learn more about the jobs that have shaped history and find out about important changes in technology and how they have impacted the world of work. With more than 40 hands-on experience stations, representing aspects of over 60 occupations, the centre offers teenagers a chance to gain a realistic perspective on careers within areas such as the legal profession, the service industry, the culture, arts and multimedia sector, and the technical, scientific, medical and public service sectors. The career planning area offers different experiences: the individual testing corner, where students can take an online aptitude test; a game-like interests testing area; a traditional group counselling session on career guidance for teenagers; and a talent spectrum tool that creates a unique brain map for each young person.
Source: http://koreajobworld.or.kr/upload/files/20141029152309_1.pdf
Turkey: SKILLS’10 (UMEM BECERI’10)
The Ministry of Labour and Social Security of Turkey, bringing together government agencies, local communities, social partners and the private business sector launched the programme Skills’10 (Beceri’10 in Turkish) in 2011. The programme combines skills development and job placement with a multi-level governance approach, with employers and the unemployed as the final beneficiaries.
The Turkish labour market has been undergoing a dynamic transformation across all sectors from manufacturing to services, marked by technological change and rural to urban migration, creating a pressing need to increase the skills levels of a growing workforce with an ever-larger youth contingent. While 2.7 million people were unemployed (10.4% of the workforce) in 2012, firms were encountering difficulties in hiring qualified staff. The global economic crisis led to job losses, mainly among unskilled workers, and the authorities gave a high priority to developing a large-scale programme to tackle the skills mismatch problem and upskill the workforce.
The main objectives of the Skills’10 programme were to tackle the skills mismatch, reduce unemployment, and deal with the problem of skills shortages.
The programme's innovative approach combined research, identification of short-term skill needs at local level, a local partnership approach with the close cooperation of employers, and a fully-fledged public relations awareness campaign.
The programme covered four main phases:
- Renewal of equipment in 140 schools to deliver training with modern technology – preparatory measures include the renewal of training equipment, curriculum review and trainer training;
- A skills needs survey in 24 cities;
- Training courses organised in line with demand – trainees are matched with firms for internships and local course administration councils are established to ensure local ownership;
- Regular job placement as a final goal after the trainees complete courses and internships – hiring incentives should contribute to a high placement rate.
Highly ambitious goals were set when the programme started, with plans to train 1 million unemployed people (200 000 each year), placing 90% of them in jobs within five years and reducing the unemployment rate by 4%.
The Turkish Economy Policies Research Foundation (TEPAV), a TOBB (Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey) think tank, conducted a labour market demand analysis in 19 pilot provinces that accounted for 75% of registered employment and 80% of registered unemployment in Turkey. The results confirmed that there is a mismatch between the skills level of the workforce and employer demand, with shortages in occupations such as metal working, welding, textiles and clothing. One of the first actions in response to these findings was to modernise the specialised occupation training centres (UMEM) and provide training for the teaching staff. İŞKUR (the Turkish Employment Agency) organised training for the unemployed in line with identified demands, followed by job placements for trainees organised with the help of incentives in the form of reduced social security contributions for up to five years.
The multi-level governance approach at national and local level is a valuable practice and may provide an institutional basis for further skills and employment programmes. Capacity development for demand-oriented vocational training provision, including investment in training infrastructure, promises to have sustainable impacts. The programme also incorporates existing employment promotion measures such as incentives for hiring unemployed women and young men.
Close monitoring and continuous improvement of the programme has proved to be important. The first period of implementation showed that the bottleneck does not lie in the job vacancies but in finding enough motivated unemployed people to take part. Also, some adjustments were made to the programme after the initial experiences in implementation showed that some vocational fields did not represent very attractive career options for the unemployed. The programme was improved to attract more female participants and the range of economic sectors was expanded. Further analysis on demand in the agriculture and service sectors was added to the initial skills demand analysis for manufacturing.
Source: www.beceri.org.tr
ManpowerGroup: a private employment agency’s survey of recruitment and skills
ManpowerGroup is a private multinational company providing employment and human resource development services (staffing, recruitment and assessment, training, career management, outsourcing and workforce consulting). The company operates in over 80 countries around the globe with the highest concentration in Europe, America, Australia and Asia. The labour market and employment are the key issues concerning ManpowerGroup research, and close cooperation with employers is at the centre of the group's activities. The company also places strong emphasis on social responsibility and cooperates with many NGOs, associations, public employment services and governments, as well as regional or local authorities in some countries.
The main objective of the ManpowerGroup research is to support HR management, and the recruitment process in particular. Employers are the key target users of its products, although public employment services, governments and other public authorities are not excluded.
Employer surveys are the key methodological tool of the research and two regular surveys are highly relevant to skill needs and matching problems:
- The Manpower employment outlook survey – the main outcome of which is the Net Employment Outlook Index;
- The talent shortage survey.
In addition to these regular surveys, Manpower conducts ad-hoc surveys that contribute to creating a better understanding of employer behaviour, their HR strategies and skills utilisation. They also produce employee surveys focused on work attitudes and behaviour in the labour market.
The Manpower employment outlook survey is conducted quarterly to measure the intentions of employers to increase or decrease their number of employees in the next quarter. The survey has been running for 50 years. The total sample is representative of each national economy. Seasonal adjustments are applied in some countries. The reports publish the results in the context of international comparisons and also at the regional or sector level (the sector-level detail differs from one country to another).
The talent shortage survey is a yearly employer survey that has been conducted since 2006 and questions employers about any difficulties they have encountered in filling jobs; the most difficult jobs to fill; the potential impact on stakeholders such as customers and investors of any failure to fill vacancies; the reasons for difficulties in filling jobs (including deficiencies in several types of hard and soft skills); and what strategies have been implemented to overcome skills shortages.
Manpower operates as a global private company in a number of countries, in cooperation with public employment services and other public authorities in some cases. The exact form of the cooperation depends on the country context but usually includes assistance in job searching, guidance and training for jobseekers and the sharing of information on vacancies.
The Manpower case shows that a private company can play an important role in matching mechanisms in both the high-end labour market and segments usually considered the domain of the public employment services, such as the long-term unemployed and people with disabilities. It provides good examples of how public-private partnership can work in intermediation.
The global nature of the company enables it to conduct research and publish results and indicators comparable at the international level. This can help employers and public sector decision-makers to evaluate their situation within the context of global competition.
Close cooperation with employers and a client-oriented approach ensures that research outcomes are used to develop the HR and recruitment strategies of enterprises. As a private intermediary agency, ManpowerGroup has the advantage of being closer to the business world, allowing them to use the language of business and providing a valuable insight into business HR processes.
Source: ManpowerGroup – Workforce Insights Center: https://www.manpowergroup.com/workforce-insights
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