While reading a very interesting article by Prof. Ibourk on the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in Morocco, I wondered how much do we really know about the real impact that the current crisis will have in the different countries.
Few things are clear.
First, youth, women and other vulnerable groups, such as informal workers, have been (and will be) affected the most. This is mostly because their coping mechanisms are limited, and also because main policy interventions across borders have focused on keeping in employment those that I would call "more standard" workers (those with regular contracts).
Also, we know that technology and digital tools have advanced as never before. I read in some studies that in 3 months, the level of advancement in the use of digital technology equalled the advancement of 10 years, in a non-COVID situation. This clearly has a huge impact on the skills that workers need to have, to perform in their job, or to transit to new jobs. In this sense, lifelong learning - already essential before - has now become absolutely unavoidable, given the rapid changes and the need to adapt.
Finally, we know that extraordinary measures will be needed to face an extraordinary situation. Specific support will be needed especially for youth, as they will face even greater difficulties in finding their first job, with well known scarring effects on the medium and the long run. Targeted policy responses will be necessary also for those young people with short working experiences or with precarious and non-protected jobs
On the other side, many more issues are unclear.
What will be the overall impact on employment and unemployment in countries? Are countries ready to implement new employment measures and mechanisms? Do we need new paradigms to face the crisis? How can the market be re-launched? What new skills will be key to succeed in the new environment?
Answers to the above questions will differ from country to country, and the policies adopted will dramatically change the impact of the crisis.
A possibility exists that, however, as a real game changer, the pandemic could be the opportunity to accelerate the transformation toward new development models, based on a socio-economic and ecological transformation that put individuals at the heart of countries' policy agendas and that respects human well-being and the environment.
Are we going toward a totally new labour market model or will we rather pass through a transition period, where systems will be adapted in an hybrid way, before taking their final new shapes? What will be key elements of success? And, how can the ETF provide specific support?
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