European Training Foundation-backed analysis of vocational education and labour market needs show that "demography and ageing requires a stronger role for adult learning."
Among the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, Belarus has the oldest labour market demographics and the heaviest concentration of large, state supported enterprises (SOEs). In a population of around 9.5 million, and an employment rate of 67.5% (which compares favourably with the EU average of 53.1%), nearly three quarters of the population are older than 25. The largest proportion (44%) is between 25-54, with 14% 55-64, and 16% over 65. Fewer than 15% of the working age population are 15-24.
Looking good
Labour market and training statistics for Belarus at a glance seem to provide a reasonably positive picture. More than half Belarusians are higher education graduates and 44% have medium level educational attainment; just 1.5% is judged to be in the lowest category. These figures, like those for enrolments in upper secondary vocational education and training (VET) of 41.7%, compare favourably with EU averages (upper secondary VET, 47.8%). PISA low achievers scores in 2018 for reading, maths and science, are at or around EU averages. High rates of VET graduate employment (64.5% compared with the EU average of 63.6%) present a positive picture. The number of 15-24 year olds not in employment, education or training (NEETS) has been cut from just under 10% in 2009 to just over 6% in 2018.
But ETF Torino Process analysis - the agency's flagship evidence-based tool for analysing VET and labour market progress - shows that a shrinking role for SOEs and the prospect of job losses, combined with an ageing population presents a unique challenge in Belarus to address lifelong learning and re-skilling needs.
Key challenges
The ETF's analysis - carried out in cooperation with official bodies, vocational schools and stakeholders in Belarus - shows high numbers of higher education graduates (44.5%) engaged in adult learning programmes, but concern of the lower participation of those with less education. "Labour shedding by state-owned enterprises could result in employment losses," as the role of government shifts from direct to indirect economic involvement, a summary of key human resource development challenges shows. There is concern that a lack of private sector growth could dampen employment prospects as job vacancies available for those laid off from state enterprises is concentrated in micro-enterprises with limited growth potential.
In a country where centralised state planning has continued to play a major economic role, workforce planning remains unprepared and un-adapted to the needs of the digital economy and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Current growth in the number of information and communications technology (ICT) graduates will decline after 2025. And too much attention is concentrated on the capital, Minsk - which boasts a tax-free economic zone and technical hub - with an insufficient focus on supporting economic development in the regions.
Recommendations
Given the demographics, it is hardly surprising that the top recommendation for reform is to promote adult learning and shift to a positive policy of lifelong learning.
More adult trainers will be needed and stronger cooperation between VET providers, including a new focus on informal learning and accreditation or validation of prior learning before determining precise objectives for adult training.
There should be encouragement for the more mature members of the labour market to consider what is termed "silver entrepreneurship" and better anticipation of emerging skills gaps and shortages, and the measures needed to address those.
Stronger partnerships between public VET providers and the private sector, and a new focus on e-learning are needed, along with measures to stimulate employment in micro-SMEs.
By ensuring that better quality, more flexible VET that is suited to both younger cohorts and adult learning - combined with a focus that includes the regions - Belarus could be in stronger position to address its age-driven demographic challenge.
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