According to a new publication, How migration, human capital and the labour market interact in North Macedonia | ETF (Europa.eu), North Macedonia (currently around 2 million) has one of the highest emigration rates in the world, with a ratio of migrants to domestic population averaging around 30% over the past decade.
The country has a long history of post-Second World War emigration - particularly to Germany and other parts of Europe (for low and medium-skilled jobs) and the US, Canada, Australia and the UK for more highly skilled specialists.
The European Training Foundation (ETF), in collaboration with Vienna's Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), have looked at how migration, human capital and the labour market interact in six countries in the region - Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania.
Constant emigration
Like other countries in the Western Balkans, North Macedonia's population has declined over the past 70 years, driven by low birth rates, ageing population and ongoing migration. Emigration from the country has been constant since the 1990s, transitioning from irregular, low to medium-skilled labour migration to family reunification, international students and, more recently, high-skilled labour migration.
The report found that "between 1990 and 2019, more than 200,000 Macedonians departed for a better life abroad, bringing total emigration to a staggering 32% of the population [although it] could be as high as 40%."
Remittances sent home from the Diaspora range between 4% of GDP (official figures) and as much as 10%, significantly mitigating domestic poverty.
Permanent departure
North Macedonia's significantly higher migration rate has been mostly permanent, until recently, there was little evidence of circular migration. Migration patterns are exacerbated by high numbers of North Macedonians with ethnic Bulgarian backgrounds who can claim Bulgarian passports (90,000 since 2002) and hence EU citizenship, making migration to the bloc easier.
For historical reasons, significant numbers with Turkish ethnic origin can also claim Turkish citizenship, hence contributing to migration to Turkey.
Although precise statistics on migration from the country are hampered by a lack of statistics (the last census was in 2000), UN statistics on migrant stocks showed that at the end of 2019 from a total of 658,000 identified migrants (32% of the domestic population), the largest number lived in Turkey (almost 30%), followed by Germany (almost 14%), Switzerland (10%), Australia (8%) and Serbia (7%).
Most emigrants have low levels of education, although a large enough number have medium levels of general education to impact the domestic labour market. Overall, there is no evidence of a brain drain, though some occupations - particularly doctors, nurses and midwives – experience slightly more emigration.
A recent emerging trend is an emigration to new EU member states - notably Croatia and Slovenia - which is more likely circular economic migration.
Domestic responses
The study of ETF and wiiw advocates for an evidence-based approach to an issue that can have both positive and negative consequences for a country, which can inform better policies to manage migration.
Successive governments in Macedonia have attempted to address the impact of migration, which in recent years has begun to create systemic shortages of medium and high-skilled workers, particularly in the medical sector and even skills shortages for foreign carmakers and other incoming industries. However, a patchwork of policies often driven by weak data has failed to address the issue sufficiently.
Policies designed to improve general and technical education over the past 20 years, that included introducing dual education, making the study of foreign languages and IT mandatory, and attracting Foreign Direct Investment, were successful in reducing unemployment from around 37%
in 2005 to 16% in 2020. However, precisely those skills that contributed to employment growth at home have also helped spur emigration, and in recent years, many new industries have complained of persistent shortages of skilled labour, leading in some cases to increased wages to attract and retain staff.
Other policies, such as measures to retain workers by increasing the minimum wage by nearly 50% between 2017 and 2020 and offering generous social contribution subsidies where wages were increased by up to around €100, along with pay increases for medical staff, may offer a better approach.
However, despite the best intentions of policymakers, public perceptions that North Macedonia has "no future" continue to remain - with complaints about education, healthcare, clean air and good governance (such as the increasing politicisation of public sector jobs selection) topping the bill, and emigration continues at high levels.
Push and pull factors
Understanding the 'push' and 'pull' factors fuelling migration is essential to addressing the issue.
Push factors in North Macedonia include the low quality of jobs created in the country, particularly those in the 'low-tier private sector; low wages, poor working conditions, informal employment (around 17%) and skills mismatches. Underemployment among youth is at a "staggering 60%", according to a recent study by Petreski, cited in the ETF report, and school-to-work transition takes an average of 25 months.
Pull factors are principally the attraction of better-paid jobs with good working conditions in Europe, particularly Germany, and the ease with which many people can emigrate.
German policies designed to address its own economic needs and tackle large numbers of asylum claims in recent years has also offered new possibilities: "The number of Macedonian emigrants to Germany almost quadrupled between 2005 and 2019 [with] a labour migration scheme (the Western Balkan regulation)" playing a major role. The scheme allowed asylum seekers to withdraw their applications, leave Germany, but re-enter on work permits valid for four years.
As a key trade partner and source of FDI investment, Germany could play a significant role in cooperating with North Macedonian to manage migration to the mutual benefit of both countries, the report states.
Looking ahead
North Macedonia needs a comprehensive policy on economic migration, based on reliable and comprehensive data, with a cross-institutional approach and effective coordination, the report says.
The relationship with Germany, in particular, should be nurtured with an emphasis on working to re-import skills acquired by migrants who have benefited from new measures, such as Germany's Skilled Labour Immigration Act. Developing ‘talent partnership’ with main destination countries as announced in the newly announced EU Pact on Migration and Asylum (2020) is also encouraged.
Labour market policies - particularly those that affect medium to high-skilled workers - must be mutually consistent and aimed at curbing the propensity to emigrate, the report states. For example, “subsidising high wages at the same time as introducing progressive taxation are mutually inconsistent and, applied to high-prospect sectors such as IT, may spur rapid emigration."
Recognition of informal skills and prior learning should be strengthened, and greater attention paid to tailoring skills training and education for adults according to labour market needs, particularly in areas where fast gains can be made.
Attached, you might find both the English and the Macedonian version of the report.
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