The Western Balkans countries are characterised by declining populations driven by low birth rates, ageing populations, and ongoing emigration. Emigration from the region has been constant since the 1990s, evolving from irregular, low- to medium-skilled labour migration to regular family reunification, international students, and high-skilled labour migration.
In 2020, the European Training Foundation (ETF), together with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), launched a regional study entitled 'Migration dynamics from human capital perspective in the Western Balkans'. It aimed to shed light on the triangular relationships between human capital formation, labour markets and migration, and determine how the current functioning of education systems and labour markets affects migration in each country. The outputs of the study are six country studies (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) and a cross-country synthesis report.
Within this complex triangular relationship between human capital, migration and the labour market, migration is the critical variable and the most elusive and challenging one to capture. Reliable and detailed data on migration are notoriously tricky to obtain. Nevertheless, understanding its features and recent evolution needs to be the starting point for approaching the triangular relationship, and this is the strategy adopted for this series.
Given the limited availability or lack of information and data regarding emigrants' educational levels and skills, particularly on the recent migration flows from the region, one of the methodologies developed by the ETF and wiiw team to address this lack of data was a "cohort approach analysis". This approach used Labour Force Survey data (2010-2019) and detailed education statistics obtained from the State Statistical Offices of the six Western Balkan countries and the analysis of existing literature and reports to understand better how human capital, migration and labour market interact in the region.
The main result of this new study is that migration is not unequivocally good or bad. There are both negative and positive aspects, as well as a wide range of intermediate outcomes depending on the structures of the economy, labour market and human capital in each country context. The ETF and wiiw's study on the triangular relationship between the labour market, migration and the human capital pool in a country shows that - adequately managed - migration can be positive.
The main topics addressed in the upcoming study are, but are not limited to, for each of the analysed countries: basic facts on the long term and recent migration trends; links between the labour market and migration outcomes; links between education and migration outcomes; main destination countries; migration perceptions, migration intentions and main policy responses. In some cases, particular attention is given to how a destination country can shape the triangular relationship between migration, education, and the labour market in a given country, e.g. Germany in the case of Serbia report.
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