The European Training Foundation (ETF), in collaboration with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), have looked at the impact of migration in six countries in the Western Balkans - Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania. Their newly published report, https://www.etf.europa.eu/en/publications-and-resources/publications/how-migration-human-capital-and-labour-market-interact-2, documents how Kosovo has continuously been losing its population to emigration over the past few decades. By addressing this issue, the study looks at how better to manage migration to the benefit of Kosovo.
Kosovo has the youngest population in Europe, with half under 25, characterised by low educational attainment and high unemployment. Emigration has long been an integral feature of Kosovo's labour market, with an estimated 550,000 Kosovars living abroad in 2011, mostly in Germany (35%) and Switzerland, Italy, Austria and Sweden (23%). Eurostat data for 2019 indicates that over 321,000 Kosovars have valid residence permits within the EU.
Emigration dates back to the 1960s, with successive waves that included as many as 800,000 leaving temporarily during the civil war of 1998-99, and 100,000 who joined Syrian refugees in attempting to claim asylum in Europe in 2015. Recently Kosovars have also started to emigrate to new destinations such as Croatia, Slovenia and France, mainly for temporary or seasonal jobs in services.
Despite modest economic growth over the past decade of around 4%, Kosovo's economy is marked by low levels of job creation, high youth unemployment of around 50% and high levels of young people not in education, employment or training (over 34% in 2019). Only a quarter of all 15-24-year-olds were active in the labour market in 2019.
Insecure employment, poor working conditions and low wages - particularly in the private sector where monthly salaries range €250-€440 - are driving emigration, particularly from those with low to mid-level qualifications, the report states. "Within this context, emigration intentions remain high, and emigration of Kosovars will continue in the future. The Gallup International survey conducted in 2015 and 2017 estimates about 46% of Kosovars would like to emigrate."
Low educational attainment is not helping matters: "Although educational attainment has increased over time, the still poor quality of education and mismatch between labour demand and training supply are pressing challenges for the Kosovo economy.
"Employers operate with labour that does not meet their demands [and] limited cooperation between the education system and employers….have prevented Kosovo from addressing education challenges."
Skills gaps
A World Bank survey in 2016/17 found that nearly 60% of Kosovar employers say general education fails to provide graduates with relevant experience, with half of the employers reporting a lack of soft skills, discipline and interpersonal skills. Vocational education and training (VET) score a little better, but around 40% of all firms say the VET system fails to train for current and future needs.
Where people gain useful skills and qualifications, these are often lost to Kosovo through emigration: a cohort study conducted by wiiw found that between 2016-2018 around 53,000 Kosovars emigrated, with almost half having medium-general education, and just over a quarter with lower attainment. Only around 20% had higher education.
Although higher educated Kosovars tend to remain in the country, the exception is for doctors and nurses, who are emigrating in considerable numbers, often attracted by demand in Germany.
"Emigration of skilled workers poses a significant challenged to medium-term economic prospects," the report states, with figures showing that Kosovo has only 170 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants - less than half the EU figure.
Push and pull
The study identifies the biggest reasons for high levels of emigration from Kosovo: those that push people - lack of jobs, low wages, poor conditions, and poverty. But there are also strong pull factors, particularly from Germany, that attracts migrants. Germany's Western Balkan Regulation of 2015, which offered asylum seekers unlikely to qualify the chance to gain work permits if they left Germany and then returned, drove a spike in Kosovo's emigration figures. The new 2020 Skilled Immigration Act is likely to tempt immigrants from the country, driving huge demand in Kosovo for German language studies.
Evidence suggests that even those Kosovars in relatively secure employment are emigrating: a UNDP survey of 2019 across more than 200 enterprises showed nearly half had witnessed emigration of their employees over the previous three years. Most went to Germany (83%) and previously held technical positions in Kosovo companies.
Although the Kosovo government has attempted to address migration, its key policy pillars are failing to address the fundamental issue - an educational system unsuited to the demands of the modern labour market, the report says.
Education is key
Poor quality of education in Kosovo may be one of the key reasons encouraging emigration, the report finds. Although there have been signs of some improvement in educational outcomes in recent years, key indicators such as PISA scores remain stubbornly low: 2018 results show that around 78% of pupils aged 15 failed to reach minimum standards in reading and mathematics, and nearly 68% in sciences.
The lack of adequately qualified workers seems to be driving lower wages, particularly in the private sector, creating a vicious circle that foments the desire to emigrate. A lack of systematic labour market needs analysis and poor cooperation between the VET system and employers mean insufficient evidence to base effective policies.
Policy implications
Kosovo needs to develop comprehensive policies on migration that address both the positive aspects - such as circular migration bringing back skills to the country - and those that aim to retain workers and stem emigration, the study suggests.
Efforts should also be put into bilateral agreements with the main destination countries to encourage circular migration. At the same time, dialogue with Germany is a must to manage its role as a key attractor for Kosovar migration.
Besides managing migration, the key focus should be creating (skilled) jobs in the Kosovar economy and attracting foreign investors to Kosovo. Systematic monitoring of the Kosovo labour market is also necessary through forecasting labour market needs in different sectors. "There is a need to undertake proper analysis and implement measures to prevent the outflow of occupations where shortages exist."
General and vocational education should be supported to better align with labour market needs and stronger stakeholder relationships between education and business. Considering high youth unemployment, Kosovar youth needs special attention and massive support, similar to the EU Youth Guarantee schemes.
Other human capital investment initiatives such as the Young Cell Scheme, which encourages students to study in the EU but return to work in the Kosovar civil service, and the participation in the EU's Erasmus project should be encouraged – as long as they return to Kosovo with new skills and qualifications.
Kosovo needs to collect systematic migration data and expand questions asked in the census, the next of which is due in 2022, the report concludes.
Attached, you might find both the English and the Albanian version of the report.
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